The UK faces health crisis as long-term conditions keep millions out of work

One does not need to be a mathematician to understand the impact this crisis has on health and other public services and the economy. In this, the UK is also an outlier compared to other European countries. Where our closest geographical peers have seen a fall in economic inactivity since the pandemic, we have seen a rise.

Pilot projects to reduce inactivity

The Chancellor recently announced funding for a small number of pilot projects aimed at reducing economic inactivity due to health and care-related issues among working-age individuals. If successful, this could offer multiple benefits for the NHS, including reducing demand for health and care services, as working-age individuals tend to experience worsened health when unemployed.

These resources should be targeted to conditions that are playing the biggest role in driving inactivity in the population, namely those living with musculoskeletal conditions and mental ill health.

"From the origins of public health to the creation of the welfare state, we know significant change is possible."

Tackling workforce decline

The opportunities presented by tackling economic inactivity are significant. If we can’t drive down the demand for health services, and the number of people unable to work due to illness keeps rising, then we will face a major problem. The Office for Budgetary Responsibility recently estimated that if the deterioration in health carries on, then 1 million fewer people would be in work by 2070.

Preventing health and social care collapse

We must try and tackle this issue head-on. If not, our health and care system will become ever more fragile and stretched, and the associated fallout will put a huge strain both on other public services and the economy.

From the origins of public health to the creation of the welfare state, we know significant change is possible. It is often difficult and not without big challenges, but we do not have the option of taking the gamble of doing nothing.

Matthew Taylor is chief executive of the NHS Confederation. You can follow Matthew on X (formerly Twitter) @ConfedMatthew